Modelling of emerging threates and epidemics
https://epiforecasts.io
Models are a tool to combine data (what we know) with assumptions and theory (what we think) to learn about what we don’t know.
January 2020: Can COVID-19 be controlled by contact tracing?
Probability of control depends on intensity of transmission and contact tracing effort.
Evaluation of forecasts
Assess quality of models by how closely prediction matches reality
Types of predictive modelling
Forecasts vs. Scenarios
Image from: https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/
Forecast hubs support systematic collection of forecasts
Median ensemble outperformed individual models
Case forecasts difficult from a few weeks from the forecast date
Humans were better than models at predicting cases, but not deaths
No clear pattern of which type of model performed best
Not all modelling is forecasting, can we evaluate other models?
Any model of the future is a prediction and can be evaluated as such.
Utility could be independent of predictive ability
Utility is not being assessed by modellers
Collaboration with Robert Koch Institute / WHO.
Predictable tasks during epidemics
Figure courtesy of Adam Kucharski
Predictable task: mpox nowcasting
Unpredictable task: the impact of the transmission network
Supporting predictable modelling with software tools
Thank you
Slides at
