We illustrate the potential impact that flawed model inferences can have on public health policy with the model described […] by Joel Hellewell and colleagues, which is part of the scientific evidence informing the UK Government’s response to COVID-19.
Supporting predictable modelling with software tools
Summary / discussion points
Initial work during COVID-19 was strongly driven by available models and data. Future work can be facilitated by R packages etc. that serve as tools for predictable tasks.
Multi-model efforts have created insights into the accuracy of models for prediction.
More work is needed to determine which data and methods for forecasting best support public health.
Efforts are ongoing to assess the usefulness of modelling efforts.